Let's start with a big question: What reasons are there for inflation
to occur? One way of answering this question is to take the monetarist
approach and focus on the so called Equation of Exchange. It will help
us to easily identify the culprit.
First we take a look at the
quantities necessary to understand this equation step by step and using
an example. One quantity is the money supply M. It's simply the total
amount of money present in the economy. For introductory purposes, I'll
set this value to M = 100 billion $.
Also important is the
velocity of money V. It tells us, how often each dollar (bill) is used
over the course of a year. This quantity depends on the saving habits of
the people in the economy. If they are keen on saving, the bills will
only pass through a few hands each year, thus V is small. On the other
hand, if people love to spend the money they have, any bill will see a
lot of different owners, so V is large. For the introductory example,
we'll set V = 5.
Note that the product of these two quantities is
the total spending in the economy. If there are M = 100 billion $ in the
economy and each dollar is spend V = 5 times per year, the total annual
spending must be M · V = 500 billion $. This conclusion is vital for
understanding the Equation of Exchange.
There are two more
quantities we need to look at, one of which is the price level P. It
tells us the average price of a good in the economy. If there's
inflation, this is the quantity that will increase. Let's assume that in
our fictitious economy, the average price of a good is P = 25 $.
Last
but not least, there's the number of transactions T, which is just the
total number of goods sold over the entire year. We'll fix this to T =
200 billion for now and make another very important conclusion.
The
product of these last two quantities is the total sales revenue in the
economy. If the average price of a good is P = 25 $ and there are T =
200 billion goods sold in a year, the total sales revenue must be P · T =
500 billion $. It is no accident that the total sales revenue equals
the total spending. Rather, this equality is the (reasonable) foundation
of the Equation of Exchange.
For the total spending to equal the total sales revenue, this equation must hold true:
M · V = P · T
which
is just the Equation of Exchange. Now think about what will happen if
we increase the money supply M in the economy, for example by printing
money or government spending. We'll assume that the spending habits of
the people remain unchanged (constant V). Since we increased the left
side of the equation, the total spending, the right side of the
equation, the total sales revenue, must increase as well.
One way
this can happen is via an increase in price level P (inflation). Indeed
empirical evidence shows that in the US every increase in money supply
was followed by a rise in inflation later on.
Luckily there's
another quantity on the right side which can absorb some of the growth
in money supply. A rise in the number of transactions T (increased
economic activity) following the "money shower" will dampen the
resulting inflationary drive. On the other hand, a combination of more
money and less economic activity can lead to a dangerous, Weimar-style
hyperinflation.
At some point of your life, you probably thought
to yourself: If governments can print money, why the hell don't they
just make everyone a millionaire? The answer to this question is now
obvious: The Equation of Exchange, that's why. If the government just
started printing money like crazy, the rise in price level would just
eat the newly found wealth up. Each dollar bill would gain three zeros,
but you couldn't buy more with it than before.
Of course there can
be much more trivial causes for inflation than a growing money supply.
Prices are determined by an equilibrium of supply and demand. If demand
drops, the retailers have to lower their prices to sell off their
stocks. Similarly, if demand suddenly increases, the retailer will be
able to set higher prices, resulting in inflation. This happens for
example when a new technology comes along that quickly rises in
popularity. Appropriately, this kind of price level growth is called a
demand-pull inflation.
Inflation and the Equation of Exchange
Posted by CB Blogger
Blog, Updated at: 9:54 PM
